Sign in

You're signed outSign in or to get full access.

SS

Stabilis Solutions, Inc. (SLNG)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 delivered record profitability metrics: net income of $2.1M ($0.11 EPS), Adjusted EBITDA of $4.0M, and Adjusted EBITDA margin of 23.2% driven by mix shift to aerospace and marine and operating efficiencies .
  • Revenue mix pivot toward growth markets accelerated: aerospace +35% YoY, power generation +23% YoY, and marine bunkering +500%+ YoY; aerospace+marine reached ~49% of Q4 revenue vs ~14% LY, offsetting softer oil & gas and lower natural gas prices .
  • Liquidity solid: $9.0M cash and $4.3M availability exiting Q4; TTM Adjusted EBITDA implies net debt/EBITDA ~0.03x, supporting growth investments and potential project financing for incremental liquefaction capacity .
  • Guidance: no quantitative revenue/EPS outlook; management outlined maintenance capex of ~$1.5–$2.0M annually, potential $20–$25M FID to complete an additional LNG train (9–12 months to complete at George West), and incremental gross margin potential of $10–$15M upon deployment .
  • Consensus estimates from S&P Global were unavailable at time of analysis, so beats/misses vs Street cannot be assessed; however, operational records and margin expansion are likely positive stock catalysts given the mix shift narrative and capex optionality [Values retrieved from S&P Global unavailable].

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Record Q4 Adjusted EBITDA ($4.0M) and margin (23.2%) on improved utilization and mix toward contracted, higher-quality revenues; Q4 net income rose to $2.1M ($0.11) vs $1.4M ($0.08) in Q4 2023 .
  • Strategic mix shift: aerospace and marine reached ~49% of Q4 revenue, up from ~14% LY, with aerospace +35% YoY and marine bunkering +500%+ YoY; management emphasized “multi-year value creation journey” and strong competitive position in these markets .
  • Operating cash flow more than doubled YoY in 2024 to $13.7M, funding capex and storage expansion; exiting Q4, cash and availability totaled $13.3M, positioning SLNG to finance growth .

Management quotes:

  • “Adjusted EBITDA of $4 million was a record for the fourth quarter… margin also reached a record 23.2%” .
  • “Revenue mix in high-growth marine and aerospace increased from 14%… to nearly 50% in Q4 2024” .
  • “Operating cash flow more than doubled… driven by improved utilization… and revenue growth within aerospace and marine” .

What Went Wrong

  • Reported revenue declined ~4% YoY in Q4 due to lower oil & gas customer revenues and lower natural gas prices despite volume growth; commodity price pass-through muted revenue growth .
  • Sequential revenue fell Q3→Q4 ($17.6M to $17.3M) amid timing effects (oil & gas contracts, slower aerospace uptake, marine scaling cadence); management flagged timing across end-markets .
  • Q4 G&A declined on accrual adjustments and CEO transition-related items; management highlighted one-time costs expected in Q1 tied to separation, adding near-term noise to expense lines .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2023Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$18.049 $18.598 $17.627 $17.298
EPS (Basic & Diluted, $USD)$0.08 $0.00 $0.05 $0.11
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$3.340 $2.192 $2.569 $4.002
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$2.900 $2.110 $2.582 $4.013
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)16.1% (calc: 2.900/18.049) 11.3% 14.6% 23.2%
Cost of Revenues ($USD Millions)$12.008 $13.550 $12.638 $12.367
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)$6.041 (rev–cost) $5.048 (rev–cost) $4.989 (rev–cost) $4.931 (rev–cost)
Gross Margin (%)33.5% (calc) 27.1% (calc) 28.3% (calc) 28.5% (calc)

Notes:

  • All figures are unaudited and in thousands in source; converted to USD Millions above .
  • Adjusted EBITDA margins for Q2 and Q3 cited directly from prepared remarks/transcripts .

Segment/End-Market Mix

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Aerospace + Marine Share of Revenue (%)N/A (full-year aerospace ~10% volumes) ~40% ~49%
Contracted Revenue Share (%)N/A68% (vs 43% LY) N/A

KPIs and Operating Metrics

KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
George West Liquefaction Utilization (%)“60% improvement vs LY” (no exact %) ~90% N/A
Port Allen Liquefaction Utilization (%)N/Ahigh ~70s N/A
Gallons Delivered YoY (FY)N/AN/A+8M gallons YoY (FY 2024)
Cash & Availability ($M)$11.5 cash; $4.4 availability (end Q2) $12.4 cash; $3.2 availability (end Q3) $9.0 cash; $4.3 availability (end Q4)
Net Debt / TTM Adjusted EBITDANet cash positive (end Q2) Negative 0.2x (net cash) ~0.03x (TTM basis)

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Maintenance Capex ($)FY 2025+N/A~$1.5–$2.0M annually New detail
2024 Capex ($)FY 2024$8–$10M expected (Q3 call) ~12% of FY revenue; >$7M growth capex; Q4 capex >$5.5M (deployment/storage) Maintained trajectory; actuals updated
Liquefaction Train FID Cost ($)Project (George West or Waterfront)N/A~$20–$25M to finish construction; 9–12 months to complete at George West; longer on water New detail
Incremental Gross Margin ($)Post-Train DeploymentN/A~$10–$15M potential if operated as additional train at George West New detail
G&A OutlookNear-termN/AQ4 benefited from accrual adjustments; expect one-time separation costs in Q1; run-rate similar to FY level thereafter Clarified one-time items

No quantitative revenue/EPS guidance was provided; management emphasized financing and commercial milestones for growth projects .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ2 2024 (Prior-2)Q3 2024 (Prior-1)Q4 2024 (Current)Trend
Marine bunkering expansionInitiated dedicated waterfront bunkering plans; Carnival Galveston contract executing; storage expansion underway Identified Gulf Coast site; purchased 100k gpd train; targeting 18–24 months roll-out post “go” Relocated train to George West; expanded storage; working multiple paths incl. Galveston/Houston Ship Channel; financing/commercial alignment ongoing Advancing toward FID; execution-readiness improving
Data center distributed powerTargeting primary/backup power; hub-and-spoke LNG supply for sites lacking pipelines Quantified macro demand; 22 GW data center demand by 2030; positioning as turnkey power fuel supplier No DC contracts yet; active BD; will disclose when material; frames DC under “distributed power” Narrative more cautious; execution pending
Aerospace LNG for rocketsExpanded customer base; ~+75% YoY volumes expected in 2024; ~10% of sales Threefold YoY revenue increase in marine/aerospace; capacity and purity requirements highlighted Aerospace revenues +35% YoY in Q4; continued growth; exploring contracts Continued growth; building ratability
Contracted revenue qualityPivot to term contracts; liquidity strengthening Contracted share 68% vs 43% LY; improved margins Continued emphasis (no new % disclosed); margin records Quality sustained; margin uplift
Capex and storageDoubling storage at George West; capex to rise H2 FEED/site selection; storage expansion payments ~$5.5M Q4 spend to relocate train and expand George West storage; maintenance capex guide Build-out underway; financing next
Commodity price impactsResolved feed gas issues; utilization +60% vs LY Improved utilization, revenue +15% YoY despite price headwinds Lower nat gas prices dampened revenue despite volume growth Price headwinds persist; mix mitigates

Management Commentary

  • Strategy: “We prioritized asset optimization and operational efficiency… and will prioritize growth within marine, aerospace and distributed power solutions” — Casey Crenshaw (Exec. Chairman & Interim CEO) .
  • Q4 performance: “Adjusted EBITDA of $4 million was a record… margin reached a record 23.2%” — Andrew Puhala (CFO) .
  • Liquefaction expansion economics: “It would take about $20–$25 million to finish construction on that train… could create $10–$15 million of additional gross margin… ~9–12 months to complete at George West” — Andrew Puhala .
  • Liquidity and leverage: “Total debt outstanding… $9.3 million, resulting in a net debt to trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA of just 0.03x” — Andrew Puhala .

Q&A Highlights

  • FID timeline and costs: Management working multiple paths (marine, aerospace, distributed power) and financing options; ~9–12 months to complete at George West post-FID, longer on-water; $20–$25M capex with $10–$15M incremental gross margin potential .
  • Marine customers and market: Cruise (Carnival) early mover; container, car-haulers, tankers at varying adoption rates; SLNG aiming to be primary supplier leveraging first-mover advantage on Gulf Coast .
  • G&A cadence: Q4 benefited from accrual adjustments (bonus, CEO transition); expect one-time separation costs in Q1; run-rate approximates FY figures thereafter .
  • Volumes timing: Gallons delivered up ~8M YoY (FY); Q4 fluctuations reflect oil & gas contract declines, slower aerospace uptake, marine scaling .
  • Data centers: No active DC contracts yet; BD ongoing; SLNG will disclose when material; distributed power viewed as the framing for DC opportunities .

Estimates Context

MetricActual Q4 2024Consensus (S&P Global)Surprise
Revenue ($USD Millions)$17.298 N/AN/A
EPS ($USD)$0.11 N/AN/A
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$4.013 N/AN/A

Consensus estimates via S&P Global were unavailable at the time of analysis; as a result, we cannot quantify beats/misses vs Street. Values retrieved from S&P Global unavailable.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Mix-driven margin expansion: With aerospace and marine growing to ~49% of revenue, Q4 Adjusted EBITDA margin reached 23.2%; sustaining this mix is key for continued profitability improvement .
  • Growth project optionality: A completed train (~$20–$25M capex) could add $10–$15M gross margin; financing and commercial offtake will dictate timing and returns (9–12 months to complete at George West) .
  • Liquidity support: Cash and availability of ~$13.3M exiting Q4 and net debt/EBITDA ~0.03x provide capacity to pursue selective growth while absorbing one-time costs in Q1 .
  • Commodity price sensitivity: Lower natural gas prices can dampen reported revenue despite higher volumes; focus on contracted/term agreements mitigates volatility .
  • Near-term trading: Absence of quantitative guidance and Street comparison may limit immediate catalysts; watch for FID announcements, new marine/DC contracts, and financing updates as potential re-rating events .
  • Medium-term thesis: First-mover advantage in small-scale LNG bunkering and distributed power, expanding storage and potential liquefaction capacity, and improving contract mix support durable margin and cash generation .
  • Expense normalization: Expect Q1 one-time separation costs; G&A run-rate likely reverts to FY levels thereafter, preserving margin trajectory if mix persists .

Appendix: Additional Q3/Q2 Results (for Trend)

  • Q3 2024: Revenue $17.627M; EPS $0.05; Adjusted EBITDA $2.582M; margin 14.6%; cash $12.4M; availability $3.2M; contracted revenue 68% .
  • Q2 2024: Revenue $18.598M; EPS $0.00; Adjusted EBITDA $2.110M; margin 11.3%; cash $11.5M; availability $4.4M; storage expansion initiated .